Lake Nacimiento, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

636
FXUS66 KLOX 062156
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
256 PM PDT Mon Apr 6 2026

.SYNOPSIS...06/311 AM.

Temperatures will cool today and Tuesday with increasing onshore
flow and areas of low clouds and fog near the coast. Warmer
temperatures will return briefly Wednesday before a sustained
cooling trend takes us into the weekend with a chance of rain.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)...06/253 PM.

Weak upper level trough moving into region today, bringing
increased onshore flow and a cooling trend, most noticeable
across coastal and coastal valley areas. The bulk of the high
level clouds have shifted south of the forecast area today. Most
coast and valleys will drop at least 3-6 degrees from yesterday`s
highs and near the beaches the drop could be as much as 10
degrees.

Onshore pressure gradient are increasing this morning and will
further increase across the region this afternoon, when LAX-
Daggett pressure gradient could reach +5 to +6 mb range. This
will generate increasing onshore winds across the interior this
afternoon/evening, and this trend will continue the next few days.
Also expecting northwest pressure gradients to increase tonight
and the next few nights, with Santa Barbara-Santa Maria expected
to reach around -4 mb. A wind advisory has already been posted for
later today into tonight for the western Santa Ynez mountains and
southwest Santa Barbara coast, with gusts in the 35 to 50 mph
range. Winds will be strongest tonight from Gaviota to San Marcos
Pass. A wind advisory may need to be expanded to include the I-5
corridor and western Antelope Valley foothills as early as
tonight, with increasing probability for Tuesday night. In
addition, the sundowner winds are expected to shift eastward into
the eastern Santa Ynez range by Tuesday night, which may require
wind advisories for that region as well. North gradients will peak
Wednesday, and with an increase in support aloft and subsequent
downsloping south of the mountains, temperatures are expected to
rise anywhere from 3 to 6 degrees, making Wednesday the warmest
day of this week.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...06/255 PM.

Light rain will be possible starting Thursday night, particularly
for areas north of Point Conception. By Friday, the cold upper
low will enter the region, bringing cooler temperatures, rain and
thunderstorms chances. Due to the cold and unstable nature of the
storm, thunderstorms will be possible. Most rain is likely to
fall between Friday and Saturday, with lingering chances for
showers and thunderstorms on Sunday. Rain totals with this storm
are likely to be between 0.25 inch and 1.0 inch, but locally up to
2 inches will be possible across some mountains and areas impacted
by thunderstorms. Ensemble means over the last couple days have
been fairly consistent with regards to average rain amounts and
timing. However there remains a lot of spread in the exact rain
totals between ensemble members, which suggests uncertainty in
rain totals and a showery rain pattern that would yield variable
rain amounts across the region. By early next week, a gradual
warming and drying trend is expected, however at this point there
is no strong signal for another storm or heatwave.

&&

.AVIATION...06/1808Z.

At 1634Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1200 ft deep. The top of
the inversion was at 1900 ft with a temperature of 18 C.

Overall, moderate confidence in 18Z TAF Package. Timing of
CIG/VSBY restrictions may be off +/- 2 hours and flight minimums
by one category. More confident in CIGs tonight due to less high
clouds and the development of a weak to moderate Catalina eddy
overnight. With this LIFR CIGs could possibly arrive (40% chance)
at KBUR & KVNY between 07/10Z-16Z.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Arrival and clearing times of
CIGs may be off +/- 2 hours. CIGs likely to range from IFR to
low-end MVFR 007-015. No significant east wind component is
expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. LIFR CIGs possible (40% chance)
between 07/10Z-16Z.

&&

.MARINE...06/157 PM.

Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds will become widespread by
this afternoon to include all Outer Waters, nearshore along the
Central Coast, and the Santa Barbara Channel. SCA winds will
continue across all Outer Waters through Wednesday. There is a
60% chance that a GALE Warning will be needed for PZZ676 from
Tuesday evening through the overnight hours.

Winds will diminish later in the week with moderate chances for
SCA winds lingering south of Point Conception on Thursday and
possibly into Friday.

The Inner Waters will reach SCA levels at times mainly during the
afternoon and evening hours - lower chances along the Central
Coast later in the week. There is a 30% chance of GALE force winds
Wednesday night across the Santa Barbara Channel and near the
Channel Islands.

A storm system is expected to impact the coastal waters starting
Thursday night lasting into the weekend bringing rainfall and the
potential for thunderstorms. Confidence is low on exact timing
and details for now.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory in effect until 8 AM PDT Tuesday for zones
      349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for
      zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for
      zones 650-670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Gomberg/Schoenfeld
AVIATION...Black
MARINE...Black
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox